The Red Sox's First Base Dilemma: Can Willson Contreras Be the Answer?
The Red Sox have been on a quest for stability at first base, and they might have found their man in Willson Contreras. But here's where it gets controversial... Contreras, a former catcher, made the switch to first base last year, and the team is hoping he can bring some much-needed consistency to the position.
For years, the Red Sox have struggled to find a reliable first baseman. Let's take a look at the recent history:
- 2020: Michael Chavis, with a disappointing -0.8 bWAR
- 2021 & 2022: Bobby Dalbec, who managed only a combined 0.0 bWAR over these two seasons
- 2023: Triston Casas shone with a 2.2 bWAR, but injuries have since hampered his progress
- 2024: Dominic Smith and Abraham Toro filled in, but neither brought the desired stability
And this is the part most people miss: only two players in the past six years have had a positive WAR at first base for the Red Sox! It's been a rough patch indeed.
Enter Willson Contreras. He's been a model of consistency when on the field, and the move to first base could be a game-changer. In his four seasons post-30, Contreras has maintained an impressive OPS range of .791 to .848, with solid power numbers. Even with injuries in 2024, he managed to hit 15 home runs in limited action.
Contreras' age-33 season was a testament to his durability and skill. He ranked highly in Barrel % and Hard Hit%, and his bat speed was in the top 5% - a great sign for an aging hitter. His spray chart suggests he could thrive at Fenway, especially with the Green Monster in left field.
Defensively, Contreras handled the transition to first base like a pro, ranking in the 90th percentile for Outs Above Average. And his arm strength remains impressive, too.
The Red Sox are optimistic, projecting Contreras to bat cleanup, protected by Wilyer Abreu against right-handers. The team hopes he can get his walk rate back up to his career average, which would be a welcome boost.
Contreras has consistently delivered a bWAR of 2.5 or higher since his rookie year (excluding 2020), and if he can maintain this level of performance while staying healthy, the Red Sox might finally have their first base worries behind them.
The Injured Stars: Triston Casas and Romy Gonzalez
The need for stability at first base is even more apparent when we consider the injuries to Triston Casas and Romy Gonzalez. Casas, who had a breakout 2023 season, suffered a devastating knee injury in 2025, ending his season prematurely. In the two seasons prior, he managed a .222/.318/.412 slash line with a 29.3 K% and a 100 wRC+ in 92 games.
Casas still has three seasons left in Boston before free agency, and both he and the team will be hoping for a healthy 2026 to rebuild his trade value. Recent reports suggest he's moving well in defensive drills during spring training, which is a positive sign.
Romy Gonzalez, too, is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. He played multiple positions last season, including first base, and excelled against left-handed pitching. However, a shoulder injury sustained in September 2025 has been a concern. If he can return in the first half of 2026, he'll provide valuable depth at first base.
Other Options and Minor League Depth
Once Casas and Gonzalez return from injury, they're expected to be the primary options at first base. But until then, the Red Sox have some interesting backup plans.
Andruw Monasterio, despite never playing first base in the minors, has seen action there in the majors with Milwaukee. Statcast shows he's made all the plays when balls have come his way.
Then there's Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who has never played an inning at first base in his MLB career, but he's willing to give it a go! Kiner-Falefa is comfortable on the left side of the infield and hopes to get a chance to play all nine positions before his career ends.
In the minors, Nick Sogard and Nathan Hickey provide some depth. Sogard appeared in 30 games with the Red Sox last year, primarily at first base, and is expected to spend time with the big club in 2026. Hickey, meanwhile, had a solid season with Worcester, slashing .234/.325/.408 with 17 home runs and 75 RBI.
Divisional Competition: A Tough Road Ahead
The AL East is a gauntlet at first base, with some formidable competitors. Here's how the Red Sox stack up:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR): A consistent performer, Guerrero has missed only a handful of games in his career. He had a stellar 2025 season with a 4.6 bWAR, and an even more impressive postseason with eight home runs and a 1.289 OPS.
- Pete Alonso (BAL): Another iron man, Alonso has never missed more than ten games in his career and played all 162 in the past two seasons. He's coming off a strong year, with a .272 batting average and 126 RBI.
- Willson Contreras (BOS): A decade of consistent performance has earned Contreras his spot on this list. With a career-high 563 plate appearances in 2025, he could be a key part of the Red Sox lineup. The Green Monster could be a launching pad for Contreras' power.
- Ben Rice (NYY): One of last season's breakout stars, Rice rotated between first base, catcher, and DH. He'll need to prove he can handle lefties in 2026 after being left out of the lineup against Boston in the playoffs.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB): Aranda steps into the spotlight with Yandy Diaz moving towards a full-time DH role. He had an impressive .316 batting average at Steinbrenner Field last year, but a wrist injury sidelined him for the final two months.
The Red Sox have their work cut out for them, but with Contreras leading the charge, they might just have a fighting chance.
So, what do you think? Can Willson Contreras bring the stability the Red Sox crave at first base? And how will they fare against their divisional rivals? Let's discuss in the comments!
